The Muhurat week that went flat

The Nifty 50 (India’s benchmark indexed on the National Stock Exchange of India) closed around ~25,795 levels, showing a recovery from support zones
Let’s not forget that this week was a crucial Diwali week when Muhurat trading, annual ritual was embedded
The much talked about phenomenon of NIFTY touching 26,000 happened though the market could not sustain at that level
However, Friday saw profit booking and the formation of a large red candle cautioning investors of changing sentiments

Foreign investor flows: FII’s continue their selling and DII’s continue to buy but a turn from net outflow to inflows would be a positive trigger.
Monetary and fiscal policy: Any accommodative moves by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) or government spending can boost confidence.
Some of the risks are glaring as in the Global macro volatility: Govt. shut down in the US, U.S. rate moves, China growth or global trade tensions especially the US- China one can rattle sentiment.
And of course, domestic structural issues: Credit growth, banking sector stress, etc., remains under the surface.

Domestic earnings and corporate performance: Strong results have already come in esp. of heavy weights like Reliance and this did help to sustain the rally.
Also over‐valuation concerns: With strong rallies, valuations may run ahead of fundamentals.

The 10EMA crossed above the 20EMA on the daily charts on Fri, 10^th Oct 2025 but the bullish momentum was witnessed only from the 15^th Oct 2025 and this took the NIFTY to a high of 26,104
However, momentum indicators were showing fatigue at those levels and the NIFTY saw 2 days of consecutive drops on Thu and Fri
Also, the NIFTY had already crossed the upend of the Bollinger band and was providing enough warning signs as had happened in the past five instances in the last six months

Symbolic and Auspicious start to the financial year rooted in tradition and faith.
Often marks positive investor sentiment and optimism for the coming year.
Good opportunity for long-term investors to make auspicious entries into quality stocks.
Typically, short and ceremonial, not meant for large-scale trading or speculation.

On the weekly chart, the Nifty formed a candle with a long upper shadow, signaling consolidation and selling pressure at higher levels.
We see the current level of support at 25, 625 as that would be the point when the NIFTY would have touched the 10EMA and this could happen during the coming week
If you are already invested, this might be a time to hold but monitor closely for signs of weakness (e.g., index closing below support).
If you are looking to enter, consider a phased approach –
- Look for pullbacks toward support zones and
- Choose sectors where fundamentals (earnings, policy tailwinds) are strong.
- Maintain portfolio diversification
- Always manage risks with effective position sizing
- Be alert to global trends especially one’s arising from President Trumps erratic changes to policy and tariffs and
- Pay heed to domestic risk triggers

Happy Investing

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