Weekly snapshot (week ending 14 Nov 2025)
- Indian benchmark indices ended the week higher on Fri, 14th Nov 2025
- Nifty 50 closed 25,910.05 and
- BSE Sensex closed 84,562.78
- Both indices rose about ~1.6% on the week.
Key drivers and risks
Drivers
- Domestic political clarity: Strong showing for the NDA in the Bihar election lifted investor confidence into week-end trading, supporting banks and other sectors.
- Improving earnings momentum & positive research calls: Upgrades from major brokerages (e.g., Goldman Sachs upgrading India to “overweight”) and stronger Q2 results in pockets supported the bullish sentiment
- Benign inflation / dovish RBI narrative: Retail inflation has softened, giving markets hope of further easing from the RBI, which is seen as a tailwind for rate-sensitive sectors.
Risks
- Foreign fund outflows / rotation: Country and India-focused funds have seen outflows and rotation into other markets, which could cap upside absent fresh FII interest.
- Global macro volatility: Geopolitical or US macro surprises (rates, employment, fiscal moves) could quickly alter risk-appetite.
Macro & policy backdrop
- The RBI has kept the repo rate steady at 5.50% in recent meetings and the weak inflation prints have increased market expectations of at least one 25bp cut in the December MPC window — markets are pricing easier policy ahead.
- Despite domestic institutional inflows supporting markets, FII’s have rotated away from India in recent months
Fundamental view
- Corporate earnings momentum has improved versus earlier quarters; upgrades from international houses and selective positive surprises have re-anchored the fundamental case for certain rotational sectors, financial sectors and ones in which consumption plays.
- After the recent Bull Run, valuations look selectively attractive in key domestic-consumption and financials sectors, but the market remains vulnerable to FII sentiment and export-heavy sector weakness (IT, some pharma).
Technical view
- Short-term market tone is mildly bullish — indices closed the week with a fifth consecutive session of gains and Nifty reclaimed the ~25,900 level, indicating buyers at lower levels.
- PSU banks and select rotational sectors led week-end gains ( amidst political clarity), while IT and some exporters showed relative weakness, thanks to global headlines on the same.
Outlook — coming week
What to watch
- Continued FII flows or a reversal will be the single biggest market mover. Continuously monitor daily/weekly FII/DII numbers.
- With low inflation opening a window for easing, any fresh CPI/PPI prints or MPC commentary (next formal MPC is in early Dec) will be watched closely.
- Quarterly updates from large caps will determine sector rotation — beat/miss outcomes will move stock-specific flows.
- US economic data, US fiscal developments and commodity moves (especially crude oil) could swing risk sentiment quickly.
Momentum is with bulls in the short term but gains are likely to be tested by flow dynamics and global volatility.
Would be preferable to selective long exposure to quality financials, domestic consumption stocks and names showing strong earnings traction; keeping cash handy would be a good solution if FII outflows accelerate.
