Weekly Snapshot – Week ending 31st Oct 2025
Weekly Snapshot – week ending 23rd Oct 2025
- Indices ended the week mixed but close out a strong month as earnings optimism & domestic buying offset global caution
- Nifty 50 (close, Oct 31): closed around 25,722 on Friday at the end of a muted week
- October performance: Benchmarks rose ~4.51% in October, putting the month among the best since March as earnings expectations firmed.
Key Drivers and Risks
- Earnings season tailwinds. Quarterly results and optimistic corporate commentary from several large companies buoyed sentiment and underpinned selective buying across large-caps
- Institutional Flows: DIIs supporting while FIIs mixed. On Oct 31, FIIs were net sellers (about ₹6,769 crore) while DIIs were net buyers (~₹7,068 crore), reflecting continued domestic institutional support amid bouts of foreign selling.
- FX / RBI intervention. The rupee outperformed regional peers after RBI intervention to defend levels around the mid/upper-80s to the dollar, helping calm currency-driven volatility for importers.
- Global headwinds. Comments from the U.S. Fed and continued worries over trade/geo-political noise kept volatility elevated and capped gains at times.
Macro & policy backdrop
- The RBI’s October stance remained accommodative/neutral with the repo rate unchanged (5.5%); the central bank continues to balance growth momentum and inflation risks. This backdrop is helping investor confidence in domestic growth narratives.
Fundamental view
- Winners: Select consumption & speciality-chemical names, and some mid/small-caps reporting strong quarterly numbers. United Spirits and Navin Fluorine were singled out for strong quarterly showings.
- Laggards: Private banks and some financial companies saw profit-taking late in the week amid concerns about asset-quality and rate outlook, but bullish undercurrents witnessed in PSU banks
Technical / market tone (short-term)
- The tone is selective and range-bound: volatility remains higher than seasonal averages and the market is oscillating between profit-booking and fresh buying on dips. One can expect swings driven by earnings headlines and foreign flows.
- Key near-term levels to watch: High probability of Nifty taking support at the 20EMA @ 25,600 but if that is breached, then around 25,400 as near support and 25,900 as near resistance — you may mark these as guideposts rather than hard rules.
Outlook — coming week
Let’s check the situation on the ground in terms of risks-
- FII flow reversal or sharp foreign selling
- US-India trade deal, if favorable to us, as is reportedly rumored could take markets to a upward spiral
- Global central bank signals (hawkish US Fed comments) that could push yields and USD strength.
- Corporate earnings surprises (both positive and negative) from major market players.
- Crude oil / INR moves (impact on inflation and corporate margins).
Based on the above risks, if we were to plot the market moves, it would be as follows-
- Base case: Range-bound to modestly positive. Domestic liquidity (DIIs) and decent corporate results could provide support on dips; fresh momentum would require sustained FII inflows
- Bull case: Continued reports of earnings beating estimates and renewed FII buying can push indices above the 25,900 mark.
- Bear case: A spate of disappointing earnings or sharp global rate-risk could triggers a meaningful correction
Happy Investing!
